Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Seattle Kraken (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 49.4%

SEA: 50.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.19

SEA: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	22	5	81.5%	3.09	1	-1.91
SEA	Joey Daccord	29	25	4	86.2%	3.12	1	-0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs SEA: 10-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	1	0.68
1	SEA	23	1	1.87
2	DAL	18	0	1.24
2	SEA	11	0	0.65
3	DAL	15	0	1.17
3	SEA	9	0	0.39
4	DAL	1	0	0.04
4	SEA	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2