Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 5 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

ANA: 42.9%

CGY: 57.1%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.29

CGY: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 57%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	43	38	5	88.4%	4.44	1	-0.56
CGY	Dan Vladar	20	19	1	95.0%	2.26	1	1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	10	1	0.67
1	CGY	21	1	1.81
2	ANA	17	0	1.18
2	CGY	20	0	1.20
3	ANA	7	0	0.41
3	CGY	16	0	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.3 - 2.7