Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 51.6%

VGK: 48.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.07

VGK: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

VGK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	27	23	4	85.2%	2.31	1	-1.69
VGK	J. Quick	34	31	3	91.2%	2.81	1	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • VAN at home vs VGK: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	6	0	0.26
1	VGK	19	1	1.51
2	VAN	16	0	1.15
2	VGK	13	0	0.65
3	VAN	22	1	1.40
3	VGK	6	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4