Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-03-22 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

COL: 48.5%

PIT: 51.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.82

PIT: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 76%

Over 6.5: 54%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	45	40	5	88.9%	4.72	3	-0.28
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	28	2	93.3%	3.35	1	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	1	1.35
1	PIT	15	0	0.68
2	COL	10	0	0.68
2	PIT	25	0	1.57
3	COL	18	0	1.31
3	PIT	20	3	2.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0