Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2023-03-23 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 6 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 60.9%
CHI: 39.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.25
CHI: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 74%
Over 6.5: 57%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
D. Kuemper
CHI
A. Khudobin
| Stat | WSH | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | D. Kuemper | 28 | 27 | 1 | 96.4% | 2.15 | 0 | 1.15 |
| CHI | A. Khudobin | 28 | 22 | 6 | 78.6% | 3.30 | 0 | -2.70 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • WSH at home vs CHI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | CHI 1 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-01-03 | WSH 2 - 3 CHI | CHI | WSH |
| 2025-04-04 | WSH 5 - 3 CHI | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-17 | CHI 3 - 2 WSH | CHI | CHI |
| 2024-03-09 | WSH 4 - 1 CHI | WSH | WSH |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WSH | 12 | 0 | 0.74 |
| 1 | CHI | 14 | 0 | 1.00 |
| 2 | WSH | 18 | 0 | 1.58 |
| 2 | CHI | 16 | 0 | 0.59 |
| 3 | WSH | 12 | 0 | 0.98 |
| 3 | CHI | 13 | 0 | 0.56 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 6 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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