Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 45.5%

MIN: 54.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.93

MIN: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

PHI

C. Hart

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	26	22	4	84.6%	2.91	1	-1.09
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	37	32	5	86.5%	3.99	2	-1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PHI at home vs MIN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	MIN 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	MIN
2025-10-18	PHI 2 - 1 MIN	PHI	PHI
2024-12-14	MIN 4 - 1 PHI	MIN	MIN
2024-10-26	PHI 7 - 5 MIN	PHI	MIN
2024-01-12	MIN 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.96
1	MIN	7	0	0.26
2	PHI	17	1	1.53
2	MIN	18	0	1.20
3	PHI	13	0	0.42
3	MIN	13	1	1.05
4	PHI	2	0	0.09
4	MIN	3	0	0.20
5	PHI	3	1	0.99
5	MIN	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3