St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.0%

STL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.35

STL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

DET

M. Hellberg

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	M. Hellberg	22	18	4	81.8%	1.65	1	-2.35
STL	Joel Hofer	28	25	3	89.3%	2.43	1	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	STL 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-25	DET 6 - 4 STL	DET	DET
2025-04-01	STL 2 - 1 DET	STL	STL
2024-12-23	DET 0 - 4 STL	STL	DET
2024-02-24	DET 6 - 1 STL	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	0	0.47
1	STL	10	0	0.29
2	DET	11	0	0.54
2	STL	9	0	0.66
3	DET	16	1	1.43
3	STL	9	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0