Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

DAL: 57.3%

PIT: 42.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.32

PIT: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	42	40	2	95.2%	4.10	1	2.10
PIT	C. DeSmith	33	30	3	90.9%	2.82	1	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	18	1	1.33
1	PIT	20	0	1.12
2	DAL	14	0	0.69
2	PIT	20	0	1.67
3	DAL	10	0	0.80
3	PIT	21	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9