New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-24 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 43.5%

NJD: 56.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.11

NJD: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	27	4	87.1%	3.29	2	-0.71
NJD	A. Schmid	26	21	5	80.8%	2.77	0	-2.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs NJD: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	NJD 1 - 2 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-12-21	NJD 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	NJD
2025-11-28	BUF 0 - 5 NJD	NJD	BUF
2025-02-02	BUF 4 - 3 NJD	BUF	NJD
2024-10-05	NJD 3 - 1 BUF	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	1.00
1	NJD	16	1	1.02
2	BUF	12	0	0.97
2	NJD	10	1	0.96
3	BUF	11	0	0.80
3	NJD	21	0	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4