Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2023-03-25 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 53.9%
TBL: 46.1%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.08
TBL: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
L. Ullmark
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA
| Stat | BOS | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | L. Ullmark | 27 | 26 | 1 | 96.3% | 1.97 | 0 | 0.97 |
| TBL | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 34 | 32 | 2 | 94.1% | 2.59 | 1 | 0.59 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs TBL: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | BOS 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-04-04 | TBL 3 - 1 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-02-01 | TBL 6 - 5 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-13 | BOS 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-15 | BOS 2 - 6 TBL | TBL | BOS |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOS | 14 | 0 | 1.01 |
| 1 | TBL | 10 | 0 | 0.60 |
| 2 | BOS | 13 | 0 | 0.66 |
| 2 | TBL | 19 | 0 | 0.82 |
| 3 | BOS | 14 | 1 | 0.92 |
| 3 | TBL | 15 | 0 | 0.55 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8
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