San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

CGY: 60.1%

SJS: 39.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.39

SJS: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 55%

CGY

J. Markstrom

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	31	28	3	90.3%	2.78	1	-0.22
SJS	K. Kahkonen	30	25	5	83.3%	3.80	1	-1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs SJS: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	1.06
1	SJS	14	1	1.21
2	CGY	18	0	1.50
2	SJS	9	0	0.63
3	CGY	15	1	1.23
3	SJS	15	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9