New York Rangers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 57.9%

NYR: 42.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.31

NYR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 56%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

NYR

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	42	38	4	90.5%	2.86	0	-1.14
NYR	J. Halak	34	31	3	91.2%	2.71	2	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs NYR: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	FLA 3 - 2 NYR	FLA	FLA
2026-03-29	NYR 3 - 1 FLA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-02	FLA 1 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2025-04-14	FLA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2024-12-30	FLA 5 - 3 NYR	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	18	2	1.25
1	NYR	5	0	0.25
2	FLA	11	0	0.50
2	NYR	23	0	1.44
3	FLA	15	0	0.95
3	NYR	18	0	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0