Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 8 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

MTL: 61.5%

CBJ: 38.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.32

CBJ: 2.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	23	21	2	91.3%	1.77	0	-0.23
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	32	24	8	75.0%	2.96	2	-5.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs CBJ: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	CBJ
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	MTL
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	MTL
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.53
1	CBJ	14	0	0.72
2	MTL	20	2	1.55
2	CBJ	6	0	0.41
3	MTL	13	0	0.88
3	CBJ	10	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 8 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 2.0