Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 48.5%

OTT: 51.5%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.11

OTT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 57%

NJD

M. Blackwood

OTT

D. Ferguson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	M. Blackwood	28	25	3	89.3%	1.61	1	-1.39
OTT	D. Ferguson	35	30	5	85.7%	4.34	5	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • NJD at home vs OTT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-01-19	NJD 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	16	1	0.80
1	OTT	12	0	0.46
2	NJD	18	1	1.65
2	OTT	11	0	0.27
3	NJD	17	3	1.90
3	OTT	15	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1