Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 52.8%

VAN: 47.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.54

VAN: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

M. Murray

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	M. Murray	24	21	3	87.5%	3.83	4	0.83
VAN	Thatcher Demko	26	25	1	96.2%	1.98	1	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	0	0.93
1	VAN	15	3	2.02
2	DAL	6	0	0.15
2	VAN	16	0	1.15
3	DAL	11	1	0.90
3	VAN	5	1	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9