Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-25 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

PIT: 60.6%

WSH: 39.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.41

WSH: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 57%

PIT

C. DeSmith

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	34	31	3	91.2%	4.19	3	1.19
WSH	D. Kuemper	40	36	4	90.0%	3.77	2	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	1	1.45
1	WSH	13	0	0.73
2	PIT	19	1	1.40
2	WSH	20	1	1.77
3	PIT	14	0	0.93
3	WSH	20	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9