Colorado Avalanche at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-26 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

Win Probability

ARI: 46.3%

COL: 53.7%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.96

COL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	C. Ingram	37	33	4	89.2%	4.77	3	0.77
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	35	32	3	91.4%	3.38	0	0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs COL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-18	COL 4 - 3 ARI	COL	COL
2023-12-27	ARI 5 - 4 COL	ARI	COL
2023-12-23	COL 4 - 1 ARI	COL	COL
2023-11-30	ARI 4 - 3 COL	ARI	COL
2023-03-26	ARI 3 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	7	0	0.52
1	COL	8	1	0.58
2	ARI	11	0	0.72
2	COL	22	1	2.07
3	ARI	20	0	1.71
3	COL	8	0	0.54
4	ARI	1	0	0.08
4	COL	4	0	0.25
5	ARI	5	0	0.35
5	COL	6	1	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1