Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-03-26 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Boston Bruins (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 68.4%

BOS: 31.6%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.24

BOS: 2.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	40	35	5	87.5%	5.21	6	0.21
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	39	36	3	92.3%	3.23	2	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CAR at home vs BOS: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	CAR 6 - 5 BOS	CAR	CAR
2025-11-17	BOS 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-01	BOS 2 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-04-05	BOS 5 - 1 CAR	BOS	BOS
2025-03-06	CAR 3 - 2 BOS	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	1	0.88
1	BOS	19	1	1.47
2	CAR	16	0	0.61
2	BOS	8	1	0.58
3	CAR	22	1	1.34
3	BOS	11	2	1.14
4	CAR	2	0	0.26
4	BOS	6	0	0.55
5	CAR	2	0	0.14
5	BOS	2	2	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.3