Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2023-03-26 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NSH: 54.9%

TOR: 45.1%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.10

TOR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

NSH

K. Lankinen

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	K. Lankinen	34	31	3	91.2%	4.03	3	1.03
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	23	2	92.0%	1.95	0	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • NSH at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	NSH 5 - 3 TOR	NSH	NSH
2025-10-14	TOR 7 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-03-22	NSH 5 - 2 TOR	NSH	NSH
2024-12-04	TOR 3 - 2 NSH	TOR	TOR
2023-12-09	TOR 4 - 0 NSH	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	15	0	0.55
1	TOR	17	1	1.51
2	NSH	7	0	0.64
2	TOR	11	0	0.92
3	NSH	10	0	0.76
3	TOR	18	2	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7