Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 56.6%

MTL: 43.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.38

MTL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

E. Comrie

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	46	41	5	89.1%	6.36	5	1.36
MTL	J. Allen	38	34	4	89.5%	3.63	2	-0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • BUF at home vs MTL: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	0.77
1	MTL	8	0	0.66
2	BUF	10	1	0.79
2	MTL	20	2	2.01
3	BUF	14	0	0.58
3	MTL	16	0	1.00
4	BUF	2	0	0.23
4	MTL	6	1	0.65
5	BUF	6	1	1.27
5	MTL	6	2	2.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1