Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-03-28 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 61.8%

TBL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.89

TBL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 54%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	21	17	4	81.0%	2.41	2	-1.59
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	31	0	100.0%	2.75	1	2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • CAR at home vs TBL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	14	0	0.83
1	TBL	10	1	0.56
2	CAR	12	0	0.49
2	TBL	11	0	0.65
3	CAR	20	1	1.42
3	TBL	9	1	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.9 - 3.0