Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-03-28 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

CHI: 42.9%

DAL: 57.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.94

DAL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

CHI

A. Stalock

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	A. Stalock	33	29	4	87.9%	2.61	2	-1.39
DAL	Jake Oettinger	18	17	1	94.4%	1.37	0	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs DAL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	4	0	0.13
1	DAL	12	1	0.93
2	CHI	9	0	0.44
2	DAL	20	0	1.11
3	CHI	11	0	0.80
3	DAL	13	1	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1