Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-28 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 48.9%

LAK: 51.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.06

LAK: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

LAK

J. Korpisalo

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	33	32	1	97.0%	2.53	0	1.53
LAK	J. Korpisalo	32	30	2	93.8%	3.55	2	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs LAK: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	CGY
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	1	1.43
1	LAK	15	0	1.11
2	CGY	19	0	1.36
2	LAK	13	0	0.78
3	CGY	10	1	0.76
3	LAK	14	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3