Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-03-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 7 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 66.7%

EDM: 33.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.30

EDM: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

J. Quick

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	J. Quick	39	32	7	82.1%	3.10	0	-3.90
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	18	4	81.8%	2.85	2	-1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs EDM: 4-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	0.92
1	EDM	16	0	1.06
2	VGK	12	0	0.94
2	EDM	25	0	1.70
3	VGK	11	1	0.99
3	EDM	8	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 7 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2