Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-30 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

MTL: 48.2%

FLA: 51.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.80

FLA: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	25	5	83.3%	4.39	6	-0.61
FLA	A. Lyon	20	18	2	90.0%	1.46	0	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • MTL at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.39
1	FLA	17	1	1.08
2	MTL	10	0	0.41
2	FLA	16	2	1.57
3	MTL	11	0	0.66
3	FLA	12	3	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9