Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TBL: 57.1%

WSH: 42.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	30	1	96.8%	2.44	0	1.44
WSH	D. Kuemper	34	29	5	85.3%	4.66	3	-0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	0.96
1	WSH	11	0	0.43
2	TBL	14	0	1.16
2	WSH	12	0	1.13
3	TBL	15	3	2.54
3	WSH	15	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0