Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-03-30 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 47.5%

CAR: 52.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.09

CAR: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	33	31	2	93.9%	3.12	0	1.12
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	19	3	86.4%	1.69	0	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DET at home vs CAR: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2026-01-12	DET 4 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-12-27	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2025-04-04	DET 5 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-03-14	CAR 4 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DET	8	0.40
1	CAR	21	1.32
2	DET	10	0.63
2	CAR	26	0.91
3	DET	10	0.66
3	CAR	12	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1