New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-31 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Rangers (OT)

Win Probability

BUF: 63.7%

NYR: 36.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.09

NYR: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

BUF

D. Levi

NYR

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Levi	33	31	2	93.9%	3.16	3	1.16
NYR	J. Halak	34	31	3	91.2%	2.88	0	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.97
1	NYR	6	0	0.41
2	BUF	17	0	1.08
2	NYR	15	1	1.01
3	BUF	14	0	0.54
3	NYR	27	2	1.53
4	BUF	2	0	0.29
4	NYR	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2