Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-03-31 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

VAN: 47.3%

CGY: 52.7%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.14

CGY: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	41	36	5	87.8%	4.26	1	-0.74
CGY	J. Markstrom	20	16	4	80.0%	1.78	0	-2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • VAN at home vs CGY: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.51
1	CGY	18	1	1.53
2	VAN	7	0	0.51
2	CGY	21	0	1.51
3	VAN	5	0	0.33
3	CGY	19	0	0.88
4	VAN	6	0	0.42
4	CGY	4	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2