Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-04-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 64.7%

BOS: 35.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.81

BOS: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	35	31	4	88.6%	2.79	1	-1.21
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	21	3	87.5%	3.21	1	0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs BOS: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	6	1	0.77
1	BOS	18	1	1.09
2	PIT	21	0	1.53
2	BOS	15	0	0.71
3	PIT	13	0	0.91
3	BOS	15	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0