Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-04-01 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 57.8%

BUF: 42.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.12

BUF: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	29	23	6	79.3%	3.08	1	-2.92
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	42	39	3	92.9%	3.23	0	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs BUF: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	24	0	1.60
1	BUF	11	0	0.81
2	PHI	22	0	0.96
2	BUF	20	0	1.58
3	PHI	13	0	0.67
3	BUF	8	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0