Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-04-01 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 70.6%

DAL: 29.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.39

DAL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	28	26	2	92.9%	2.58	3	0.58
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	27	5	84.4%	3.16	2	-1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • COL at home vs DAL: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	9	0	0.40
1	DAL	13	0	0.99
2	COL	12	0	0.57
2	DAL	10	2	1.05
3	COL	18	2	2.18
3	DAL	15	1	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1