Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-04-02 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 68.8%

PHI: 31.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.42

PHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

PIT

C. DeSmith

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	33	31	2	93.9%	3.67	1	1.67
PHI	Samuel Ersson	31	27	4	87.1%	4.56	4	0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	22	1	1.57
1	PHI	9	0	0.47
2	PIT	12	2	1.55
2	PHI	18	1	1.48
3	PIT	9	1	1.44
3	PHI	21	0	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0