Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-04-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 53.5%

DET: 46.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.43

DET: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	24	19	5	79.2%	3.23	3	-1.77
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	45	43	2	95.6%	3.85	2	1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	2	1.84
1	DET	16	0	1.10
2	TOR	17	0	0.69
2	DET	11	1	0.56
3	TOR	22	0	1.32
3	DET	11	2	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9