Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-04-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

CGY: 79.4%

ANA: 20.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.62

ANA: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

CGY

J. Markstrom

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	22	18	4	81.8%	1.66	0	-2.34
ANA	Lukas Dostal	41	36	5	87.8%	3.80	2	-1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs ANA: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.61
1	ANA	12	0	0.68
2	CGY	26	1	1.80
2	ANA	13	0	0.69
3	CGY	24	1	1.39
3	ANA	5	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8