Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TOR: 71.6%

CBJ: 28.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.92

CBJ: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 57%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	24	2	92.3%	2.51	2	0.51
CBJ	Jet Greaves	50	46	4	92.0%	6.23	8	2.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	23	4	2.34
1	CBJ	5	0	0.43
2	TOR	21	2	1.81
2	CBJ	18	1	1.33
3	TOR	25	2	2.08
3	CBJ	12	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8