Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 70.4%

CHI: 29.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.85

CHI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

CGY

J. Markstrom

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	23	19	4	82.6%	2.37	1	-1.63
CHI	Petr Mrazek	36	33	3	91.7%	3.51	0	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs CHI: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.85
1	CHI	12	0	0.76
2	CGY	24	0	1.71
2	CHI	8	0	0.50
3	CGY	16	0	0.95
3	CHI	12	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.9 - 3.1