Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-04-04 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 51.7%

COL: 48.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.10

COL: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

SJS

K. Kahkonen

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	K. Kahkonen	42	38	4	90.5%	4.10	3	0.10
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	31	28	3	90.3%	3.39	1	0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.40
1	COL	16	1	1.11
2	SJS	14	0	1.14
2	COL	22	0	1.57
3	SJS	12	1	1.36
3	COL	11	1	1.05
4	SJS	4	0	0.49
4	COL	2	1	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4