Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-04-05 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 62.1%

CGY: 37.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.29

CGY: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	32	3	91.4%	2.53	0	-0.47
CGY	J. Markstrom	35	34	1	97.1%	2.90	0	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WPG at home vs CGY: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WPG	10	0.57
1	CGY	13	0.85
2	WPG	23	1.24
2	CGY	15	0.92
3	WPG	18	1.09
3	CGY	17	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0