Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-04-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 41.5%

TBL: 58.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.31

TBL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	28	3	90.3%	3.40	2	0.40
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	31	6	83.8%	4.00	2	-2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • NYR at home vs TBL: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	2	1.15
1	TBL	15	1	1.25
2	NYR	13	0	1.04
2	TBL	20	1	1.47
3	NYR	20	0	1.81
3	TBL	9	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.3 - 3.0