Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 7 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

FLA: 57.9%

OTT: 42.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.74

OTT: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

FLA

A. Lyon

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	A. Lyon	58	56	2	96.6%	5.43	5	3.43
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	30	23	7	76.7%	2.02	1	-4.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • FLA at home vs OTT: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	12	0	0.58
1	OTT	28	1	1.43
2	FLA	12	1	0.97
2	OTT	23	2	2.26
3	FLA	9	0	0.47
3	OTT	25	2	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 7 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.7 - 3.1