Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-04-06 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 47.2%

TOR: 52.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.02

TOR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 56%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	31	1	96.9%	2.60	1	1.60
TOR	I. Samsonov	33	31	2	93.9%	2.50	2	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • BOS at home vs TOR: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	12	1	1.01
1	TOR	12	0	0.62
2	BOS	15	0	0.68
2	TOR	18	1	1.18
3	BOS	11	0	0.36
3	TOR	14	0	0.80
4	BOS	4	1	0.44
4	TOR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2