Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2023-04-06 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 54.4%
PHI: 45.6%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.42
PHI: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA
PHI
C. Hart
| Stat | DAL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Jake Oettinger | 25 | 24 | 1 | 96.0% | 2.23 | 1 | 1.23 |
| PHI | C. Hart | 30 | 26 | 4 | 86.7% | 2.85 | 2 | -1.15 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DAL at home vs PHI: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | PHI 2 - 1 DAL | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-11-15 | DAL 5 - 1 PHI | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-03-22 | DAL 3 - 2 PHI | DAL | PHI |
| 2025-01-09 | PHI 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-01-18 | PHI 5 - 1 DAL | PHI | PHI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 11 | 0 | 0.56 |
| 1 | PHI | 14 | 0 | 0.61 |
| 2 | DAL | 19 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 2 | PHI | 15 | 1 | 0.98 |
| 3 | DAL | 10 | 1 | 0.83 |
| 3 | PHI | 11 | 0 | 0.63 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.1
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.