Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 45.8%

CAR: 54.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.97

CAR: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

BUF

D. Levi

CAR

A. Raanta

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Levi	34	31	3	91.2%	3.57	2	0.57
CAR	A. Raanta	30	26	4	86.7%	2.69	0	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs CAR: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	0	0.42
1	CAR	18	1	1.22
2	BUF	15	0	1.30
2	CAR	15	1	0.96
3	BUF	16	0	0.97
3	CAR	22	0	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2