Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TOR: 63.8%

MTL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.78

MTL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 55%

TOR

I. Samsonov

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	21	20	1	95.2%	1.30	0	0.30
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	46	39	7	84.8%	5.01	2	-1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	32	2	2.31
1	MTL	4	0	0.12
2	TOR	18	0	1.06
2	MTL	18	0	0.91
3	TOR	16	0	1.64
3	MTL	6	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9