Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 45.2%

TBL: 54.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.95

TBL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

C. Talbot

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	24	20	4	83.3%	2.71	2	-1.29
TBL	B. Elliott	40	33	7	82.5%	5.06	2	-1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.65
1	TBL	10	0	0.51
2	OTT	22	1	1.69
2	TBL	13	0	1.10
3	OTT	26	1	2.72
3	TBL	9	2	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3