Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-04-08 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 2 Calgary Flames (SO)

Win Probability

VAN: 50.1%

CGY: 49.9%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.12

CGY: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	46	44	2	95.7%	4.66	2	2.66
CGY	J. Markstrom	36	33	3	91.7%	4.14	2	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • VAN at home vs CGY: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CGY 7 - 3 VAN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-23	VAN 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-10-09	VAN 5 - 1 CGY	VAN	VAN
2025-03-12	CGY 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	CGY
2024-12-31	CGY 3 - 1 VAN	CGY	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	17	0	0.86
1	CGY	12	0	0.69
2	VAN	15	0	1.29
2	CGY	24	0	1.98
3	VAN	6	1	0.44
3	CGY	15	2	1.25
4	VAN	7	0	0.73
4	CGY	5	0	0.57
5	VAN	3	1	0.82
5	CGY	3	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1