Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-04-09 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 53.1%

BOS: 46.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.19

BOS: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	34	29	5	85.3%	2.62	1	-2.38
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	37	34	3	91.9%	3.58	3	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs BOS: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.88
1	BOS	17	1	1.20
2	PHI	18	3	1.76
2	BOS	14	0	0.82
3	PHI	16	0	0.93
3	BOS	14	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0