Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-04-10 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 55.4%

BUF: 44.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.10

BUF: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 76%

Over 6.5: 61%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BUF

D. Levi

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	44	40	4	90.9%	6.78	6	2.78
BUF	D. Levi	30	27	3	90.0%	4.11	4	1.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYR at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.69
1	BUF	16	2	1.83
2	NYR	14	2	1.38
2	BUF	14	0	0.82
3	NYR	13	1	1.03
3	BUF	10	1	0.96
4	NYR	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	8	1	1.17
5	NYR	5	1	1.01
5	BUF	5	2	1.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1