Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-04-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 46.5%

CAR: 53.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.92

CAR: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	29	27	2	93.1%	2.93	4	0.93
CAR	Frederik Andersen	32	29	3	90.6%	3.95	4	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • OTT at home vs CAR: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	1	0.79
1	CAR	11	0	0.58
2	OTT	14	2	1.73
2	CAR	10	1	1.03
3	OTT	17	1	1.43
3	CAR	15	3	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1